Great exposure for a great cause:

The Players Gala is March 25th. Tickets are 85% sold already. See this post for details.

OMJ: Oh My Jonas

There are great performances and then there is this amazing string of Jonas Valanciunas’ last 5 games.

By comparison the highest Player Efficiency Rating (PER) in the NBA is currently 32.5 (LeBron James). Obviously a five game sample size against lesser quality players is was it is. But its certainly a good sign – and he’s been very good all season.

This (largely offensive focused data) is encouraging especially when several experts compare him to defensive anchor Tyson Chandler.

Ninja Defense

I supported the trade for James Johnson for Miami’s late 1st rounder and had a couple good debates with NBeh (a Wages of Wins network site) here (at the time of the trade) and here surrounding the merits of the deal.

A smart Raptors fan emailed me a few times on the weekend asking why the Wins Produced database has James Johnson as a PF only and what impact that may have on his WP48. He also wondered exactly what’s hurting his WP48. I defer to the Wins Produced experts for the exact impact of slotting him in as a SF vs PF (BTW, this is a small pet peeve of mine as players can be pegged in a position, but perform slightly different roles that the “average” 3 or 4 on both offense and defense, for example). We do know the WP position adjustment can be material and certainly pegging him as a full time Power Forward hurts. We also know that Johnson also plays the “3″ more (including the top 6 line ups in terms of MP) more often than the “4″.

Link to full article

Article by Eric Jackson From Forbes yesterday:

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Lin-sanity has swept up the NBA over the last week.

Last night’s 38 point performance by Harvard grad Jeremy Lin for the New York Knicks against the LA Lakers was Lin’s greatest performance yet as a starter, since he burst on to the scene and propelled the team to 4 straight wins.

But what can all of us learn from this story of this incredible young man — and how can we apply the same lessons to our own lives when we go back to work on Monday morning?

1. Believe in yourself when no one else does. Lin’s only the 3rd graduate from Harvard to make it to the NBA. He’s also only a handful of Asian-Americans to make it. He was sent by the Knicks to play for their D-League team 3 weeks ago in Erie, PA. He’d already been cut by two other NBA teams before joining the Knicks this year. You’ve got to believe in yourself, even when no one else does.

2. Seize the opportunity when it comes up. Lin got to start for the Knicks because they had to start him. They had too many injuries. Baron Davis was gone. The other point guards were out. Carmello Anthony was injured. Amare Stoudemaire had to leave the team because of a family death. Lin could have squandered the opportunity and we would have never have noticed. But he made the most of it. You never know when opportunities are going to arise in life. Often, they’re when you least expect them. Make the most of them. Don’t fritter them away.

3. Your family will always be there for you, so be there for them. It wasn’t until a few days ago that Lin got his contract guaranteed by the Knicks for the rest of the season. Before that, he could have been cut at any time. He had to sleep on his brother’s coach on the Lower East Side to get by. His family always believed in him and picked him up when he could have gotten down on himself. That made him continue to believe. If you want your family to believe in you like that, you’ve got to be there for them too when they need it.

4. Find the system that works for your style. Lin isn’t Michael Jordan or Kobe Bryant. He’s not a scorer. He’s a passer and distributor – who can also score. It didn’t work for him in Golden State or Houston – where he was before landing at the Knicks. But Mike D’Antoni’s system at the Knicks was perfect for him to show off his strengths. You’ve got to do your best to understand what your strengths are and then ensure that you’re in a system (a job or organization or industry) that is a good fit for those strengths. Otherwise, people overlook the talents you bring to the table.

5. Don’t overlook talent that might exist around you today on your team. You probably manage people at your own company today. Are you sure you don’t have a Jeremy Lin living among you now? How do you know that “Mike” couldn’t do amazing things if you gave him a new project to run with? How do you know “Sarah” isn’t the right person to take the open job in London that you’ve been talking over? We put people around us in boxes. He’s from Harvard. He’s Asian-American. Not sure he can play. How many assumptions have you made about talent around you? Don’t be like the General Managers in Golden State and Houston, and let talent slip through your fingers.

6. People will love you for being an original, not trying to be someone else. You’ve got to be you. You can’t be some 2nd rate copy of Michael Jordan. There will never be another Michael Jordan. Just be Jeremy Lin — yourself. Whatever that is. That doesn’t mean you don’t work hard — it just means you find what you’re good at and do it. Fans will love you for being you, just like they love Jeremy Lin.

7. Stay humble. If you one day are lucky enough to have newspapers want to put you on the cover in order to sell more, don’t let it get to your head. It’s been remarkable watching how humble Lin remains through all this media frenzy. It makes his teammates and fans love him that much more.

8. When you make others around you look good, they will love you forever. I didn’t know how good Tyson Chandler was, until I saw him playing with Jeremy Lin. Lin has set Chandler up many times over the last week for easy dunks because he drew the defense and then passed the ball. That’s partly why the Knicks are playing so well. They are all working harder to share the ball with others. And it’s beautiful to watch. And when the media swarms Lin, he tells them how good his teammates are. Do the same with your peers and reports.

9. Never forget about the importance of luck or fate in life. Some people believe in God, some in destiny, some in luck. Whatever you believe in it, be grateful for it.

I hope the Lin-sanity continues. And I hope we all can apply these lessons to our own work and family life.

Go team.
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More on the “no easy baskets” philosophy

We touched on this topic before, however I believe its worth revisiting. As per our previous post “Stats, Lies and Eyes“, statistics often help highlight what our “eyes” miss, but they can sometimes be deceiving as well. I believe the Raptors’ lowest FG% for “points in the paint” stat (which is quoted often) is one of those.

More here.

Please – hurry and buy a ticket buy many tickets. We are at 80% sold already!

This marquee event is March 25th this year. It WILL sell out soon. Call Team Up member Eleanor McDonald at 416-815-5428 to get your tickets now.

The response to #PlayersGala has been incredible! We’re 80% sold out already!! Don’t miss out – get your tix ->bit.ly/yoCinD

— TeamUpFoundation (@TeamUpFndn) February 7, 2012

Once again, I have the honour of being appointed to the Commissioner’s Club for the Maple Leaf Sport + Entertainment‘s (MLSE) Team Up Foundation. The Foundation is the charitable arm of MLSE, combining the philanthropic efforts of all four MLSE teams – the Toronto Maple Leafs, Toronto Raptors, Toronto FC and Toronto Marlies. Launched in December 2009 and building on the past successes of the Raptors Foundation for Kids and the Leafs Fund for Kids, the MLSE Team Up Foundation is committed to making an even bigger difference for youth across Ontario.

Please click this link to purchase (or simply call Eleanor McDonald at 416-815-5428). Click on “Commissioners Club member” under “How did you hear….” and then my name. (don’t worry, I’m 100% volunteering – but there are bragging rights at stake).

After the event last year, I attended a soccer pitch unveiling at Sorauren Park (pictures) as well as the Raptors open practice on the Variety Village Basketball Court refurbished court. I came away with even more passion to make it a banner year from the Team Up Foundation – the impact it has on the kids and the communities is amazing – there is a heightened sense of community pride when a refurbished court is unveiled. I encourage you to go to www.mlseteamupfoundation.org and see the projects we are involved in.

Over the past two years alone, the Foundation has refurbished 16 facilities. In the next twelve months, the MLSE Team Up Foundation plans to invest 2.5 million into its refurbishment, granting and ticket programs. Partnerships with the City of Toronto, Toronto Community Housing and others will help to contribute to the refurbishment of 8 more facilities: 4 rinks, 3 courts and at 1 pitch.

On Sunday, March 25th, over 80 professional athletes from all four teams (EVERY player from the Toronto Maple Leafs, Toronto Raptors, Toronto FC, and the Toronto Marlies) will team up for an evening at the #1 ranked North American Sports Bar, Real Sports. Tickets to the event are $275 per person and a tax receipt will be provided. The main event ticket includes all appetizers and beverages, pro athlete and celebrity access as well as valet parking.

You are free to reserve spots with myself or by calling Team Up member Eleanor McDonald at 416-815-5428. Please let Eleanor know I have referred you to her.

Pictures from last year’s event

I hope to see you there.

A true professional and role model. He’s 2 days younger than I, and still doing this:

Incredible.

Eyes Wide Open, Mind Wide Open

The data helps, sometimes a lot. The contributions of Oliver, Hollinger, Pelton, Rosenbaum, Winston, Berri, etc are very significant. Whether you agree with their theories or not, they – at a minimum – enhanced the discussion (even if a few are not overly open to debate).

You may believe your eyes when you say Hedo Turkoglu is clutch when the data allows us to know he isn’t. Or you may accept that Dwight Howard’s contribution to defense is identical to Hedo Turkoglu’s and simply make a “team defense adjustment” – or your eyes tell you Howard is a much superior defender. You may complain about your “go to” player shooting 38% FG%. Or you may realize most of those shots were threes, he got to the line 12 times and was very effective. Your eyes may tell you Russell Westbrook is an all-star based on 22 ppg, but Wins Produced tell you he’s more of an average PG given how often he turns the ball over (4x a game!) and has so few (relative) assists despite having several top offensive weapons. The metrics may look great, but your eyes tell you he’s playing against inferior bench players and it won’t translate to starters minutes.

The best analysis of players and/or teams combine a number of metrics as well as your well trained eyes. Your “eyes” don’t see every play of every game and record it accurately. Nor does any one metric tell the whole story, such that one can make conclusive statements (as much as some may try). Basketball is a complex game and thus anyone who doesn’t utilize several tools is bound to miss the full picture.

More here: Statophile 24 | Stats, Lies and Eyes

The Raptors’ offence certainly suffers without their main weapon.

The Raptors have lost all four games without Bargnani and its quite clear they miss his offensive production. Results may be skewed somewhat by the small sample size (4 games) which included a road loss against against a great defensive club (Chicago). However, its clear watching the games (I know, its crazy, but some stats guys actually watch the games) the ball movement suffers and defenses can fully focus on players like DeRozan (shooting 38% in the last four) while players like James Johnson end up forcing it somewhat (also shooting 38% + 7 turnovers in the last four).

Link: Statophile Volume 23 | Bad without Bargnani, Find minutes for Forbes, DeRozan’s (not) Driving

Our wings cannot score with any resemblance of efficiency. How bad is it? Bad. While Usage (USG) percentage is slightly above average, the Raptors’ wings are much less productive with the ball. True Shooting percentage (TS%), an effectiveness measure that incorporates 3 point, 2 point and free throw shooting, is much worse than the average wing. This is a combination of poor shooting overall, but also a function of Butler and Johnson not getting to the line (both average less than one attempt per game, while the league’s best get to the line 4+ times a game).

Link: RR Post: Statophile 22 | Weak Wings, Andrea the All Star and Punishment in the Paint

I tackled three topics:

• How much has the Raptors Defence Improved?
• How much has DeMar DeRozan improved his shooting beyond the arc?
• How does Jose Calderon rank among the all-star PGs so far this year?

Statophile Volume 21 | Dwane’s D, DeMar From Deep, and the Dauntless Distributor

How Much has the Raptors Defence Improved?
Many Raptors observers are looking at our defensive points allowed and are understandably impressed by the dramatic improvements. After five games (I’m writing this just before the Cavs game), the Raptors improved their average points allowed by 11 per game! (From 105.4 pts/g last year to 94.4 this year). This cut their league rank from 26th a year ago to 13th this year.