A true professional and role model. He’s 2 days younger than I, and still doing this:

Incredible.

Eyes Wide Open, Mind Wide Open

The data helps, sometimes a lot. The contributions of Oliver, Hollinger, Pelton, Rosenbaum, Winston, Berri, etc are very significant. Whether you agree with their theories or not, they – at a minimum – enhanced the discussion (even if a few are not overly open to debate).

You may believe your eyes when you say Hedo Turkoglu is clutch when the data allows us to know he isn’t. Or you may accept that Dwight Howard’s contribution to defense is identical to Hedo Turkoglu’s and simply make a “team defense adjustment” – or your eyes tell you Howard is a much superior defender. You may complain about your “go to” player shooting 38% FG%. Or you may realize most of those shots were threes, he got to the line 12 times and was very effective. Your eyes may tell you Russell Westbrook is an all-star based on 22 ppg, but Wins Produced tell you he’s more of an average PG given how often he turns the ball over (4x a game!) and has so few (relative) assists despite having several top offensive weapons. The metrics may look great, but your eyes tell you he’s playing against inferior bench players and it won’t translate to starters minutes.

The best analysis of players and/or teams combine a number of metrics as well as your well trained eyes. Your “eyes” don’t see every play of every game and record it accurately. Nor does any one metric tell the whole story, such that one can make conclusive statements (as much as some may try). Basketball is a complex game and thus anyone who doesn’t utilize several tools is bound to miss the full picture.

More here: Statophile 24 | Stats, Lies and Eyes

The Raptors’ offence certainly suffers without their main weapon.

The Raptors have lost all four games without Bargnani and its quite clear they miss his offensive production. Results may be skewed somewhat by the small sample size (4 games) which included a road loss against against a great defensive club (Chicago). However, its clear watching the games (I know, its crazy, but some stats guys actually watch the games) the ball movement suffers and defenses can fully focus on players like DeRozan (shooting 38% in the last four) while players like James Johnson end up forcing it somewhat (also shooting 38% + 7 turnovers in the last four).

Link: Statophile Volume 23 | Bad without Bargnani, Find minutes for Forbes, DeRozan’s (not) Driving

Our wings cannot score with any resemblance of efficiency. How bad is it? Bad. While Usage (USG) percentage is slightly above average, the Raptors’ wings are much less productive with the ball. True Shooting percentage (TS%), an effectiveness measure that incorporates 3 point, 2 point and free throw shooting, is much worse than the average wing. This is a combination of poor shooting overall, but also a function of Butler and Johnson not getting to the line (both average less than one attempt per game, while the league’s best get to the line 4+ times a game).

Link: RR Post: Statophile 22 | Weak Wings, Andrea the All Star and Punishment in the Paint

I tackled three topics:

• How much has the Raptors Defence Improved?
• How much has DeMar DeRozan improved his shooting beyond the arc?
• How does Jose Calderon rank among the all-star PGs so far this year?

Statophile Volume 21 | Dwane’s D, DeMar From Deep, and the Dauntless Distributor

How Much has the Raptors Defence Improved?
Many Raptors observers are looking at our defensive points allowed and are understandably impressed by the dramatic improvements. After five games (I’m writing this just before the Cavs game), the Raptors improved their average points allowed by 11 per game! (From 105.4 pts/g last year to 94.4 this year). This cut their league rank from 26th a year ago to 13th this year.

I’m off to the Team Up Foundation‘s “Have a Heart” dinner tomorrow night.

There are several amazing auction items, but these two are one-of-a-kind:

Bid generously!

Looks like we were on to something. An article by ESPN “Billy Hunter sends players memo on BRI” notes Hunter told the players “they will receive a 51.2 percent share of Basketball Related Income in the 2011-12 season.”

Stern and the owners gave other concessions as well. It was the right move as we previously argued: “If I was David Stern“

My latest over at RR:

It’s the perfect time to offer an olive branch.

It’s time to be a leader.

Why make a deal now? Both sides are taking a big hit. It’s a stalemate and NO one (besides the lawyers) is winning: owners, players, agents, workers, fans, restaurants, charities, etc.

The losses are building. The economy is fragile. Casual fans are moving on. Expectations for a season are low. It’s the perfect time for an “upside surprise” – to borrow a term from my industry.

Large amounts of money and plenty of egos at the table is never a good mix. It got out of control. Pride took over from common sense. Mr. Stern, you didn’t give them an out. You backed them into a corner – pro athletes who have fighting-through-adversity in their DNA. That’s what makes them special. That’s why they are in the NBA. They’ve never backed down from a good competition.

It’s time to lead. Give them an out. Give them more than half. Use 51% as the midpoint of a band. Take the high road. Make Billy and Derek look good (or perhaps less bad).

Following on my recent post highlighting the success of New Brunswick based technology companies, is a great post by “The Think City” Blog:
“Mega-Returns On Social Investments – Propel, Radian6, And Micro-Loans”

This group didn’t believe the traditional tech incubator model, which provides a combination of financing, office space and mentorship, would work in Saint John. At the time, venture capital investments in Atlantic Canada were almost non-existent and the big venture cap firms in Toronto and New York, rarely looked east of Montreal for ideas. Propel‘s founders knew financing would come through the development of strong relationships with would-be angel investors in Saint John and the Maritimes.

They’re doing something special there. And improving their communities in the process:

They immediately tapped into Saint John’s collaborative business community, pairing senior business executives with entrepreneurs, a one-to-one match-up. This idea would be replicated in other areas of development in Saint John over the next decade, including poverty reduction and immigration.

It all comes down to this:

The people behind these enterprises are all linked by one simple belief: that the power of one person, connected to a network, can fuel a transformation

Well done.

Why are National TV networks and newspapers so keen on reporting on ~70 protesters for “Occupy Bay Street”, but unwilling to provide coverage of “Occupy New Brunswick” where momentum is building at a much more rapid pace?!

What is “Occupy New Brunswick?” Its comprised of a group of individuals who are focused on creating jobs and giving back to the community.

Who’s leading Occupy New Brunswick? The Top 1%, although it doesn’t stop there.
New Brunswickers – entrepreneurs, angel investors and community supporters – like Gerry Pond, Marcel LeBrun, Chris Newton, Gururaj Deshpande etc…

Occupy Toronto and its ~70 protesters that marched down and occupied Bay Street get all the news…

… while a group of entrepreneurs who hired hundreds of employees (for many many days) and parlayed relatively small investments into over $650 million on value (via two acquisitions by industry heavyweights) … and are giving back to the community get little press…

If you want to improve (not simply “CHANGE!”) the economy – such that those that are willing to work hard and train for expanding fields will find employment – then it strikes me as important to identify and promote the most successful case studies and learn what was done right. The media hasn’t completely acknowledged that screaming “we want change” without any clear plan doesn’t do much for the economy or jobs – although it does lead to 3,370 articles being generated. Negatively wins. Success isn’t cool anymore.

It is true that Radian6 and Q1 Labs did get solid press when Salesforce.com (CRM-NYSE) and IBM (IBM-NYSE) respectively announced their intent to acquire them. However, little follow up was done to highlight what those companies meant to: employment growth, government tax receipts, wealth, spending, future investment, and contribution to the community and the local university in New Brunswick. It strikes me as the type of case studies that absolutely need to be promoted given the current difficult economic backdrop. Covering protests are fine… however, highlighting keys to job growth seems like a priority to me.

This is the era when Jersey Shore leads TV ratings. The media would rather showcase drama than promote well thought out ideas. Do you really want to make a positive impact? Then put together a series highlighting these stories – all of which “occupied” New Brunswick in a span of only seven months:

• Salesforce.com acquires Radian6. New Brunswick Innovation Foundation makes 28x its original investment. LINK
• IBM acquires Q1 Labs. “If you look at the skills that they have in Fredericton, they’re world-class,” said Robert LeBlanc, senior vice president of IBM Middleware Software.” LINK
• UNB to get centre for innovation. UNB alumni and serial entrepreneur Gururaj Deshpande, along with former NBTel CEO and Radian6/Q1 investor, Gerry Pond, made a multimillion-dollar donation to UNB. The “1%” are giving huge sums of money to create a much needed Centre for Innovation and Entrepreneurship. Giving back, creating jobs. The 1%. Little press. LINK
• UNB and Cisco Canada team up for innovative technology partnerships. Cisco provides $2 million endowment to establish a chair in “advanced learning technology”. Giving back. Creating future jobs. LINK
• New Brunswick Information Technology Council unveils “Blueprint for Tech Rejuvenation”. They get it “The ICT sector is the engine for growth as it has been growing at double the rate of the Canadian economy as a whole since 2007″ LINK
• “N.B. company looks to commercialize drug” LINK
• Bathurst based Sentinel Systems Ltd. signs a deal that distributes its disaster planning technology to 900 municipalities in Quebec. LINK

I’d like to challenge the CTVs, the CBCs, the Globes and the National Posts of this great country to be a part of the solution and lead with stories showing what can be done to get the economy going again. Repeating the same stories about complaints about the “system” and never highlighting solutions to the problem doesn’t appear productive, although likely keeps ratings high.

Follow some New Brunswickers that are part of the solution. The idea generators:
Marcel Lebrun, Chris Newton, Kurt Peacock, Susan Holt, Steven, David Campbell, Rob Hoadley for a start…

And kudos to UNB President Eddy Campbell and the remarkable impact he has made on the University in such a short time period.

Celebrate those who innovate, work hard and give back.

Let’s make success cool again.

Note: I wrote the majority of this post last weekend. I see that a recent Daily Gleaner article written by David Murrell (UNB Department of Economics professor) has addressed some of the themes above.